Geopolitical uncertainty and weakening risk appetite pushed Bitcoin below $71,000, with the Crypto Fear & Greed Index dropping to 23 — firmly in "Extreme Fear" territory. BTC had briefly rallied to $82K in early May on ceasefire hopes before Iran's decision to halt US talks reversed those gains entirely. Capital is staying anchored in large caps, with BTC dominance holding at 59% and altcoin participation largely absent.

OutflowsSpot Bitcoin ETFs recorded 10 straight days of net outflows totalling $2.97 billion — the longest streak on record — with CoinShares reporting $1.67 billion in weekly digital asset fund outflows overall, the second-largest weekly withdrawal year-to-date. Bitcoin accounted for $1.43 billion of that; Ethereum shed a further $257 million. Among major names, only XRP and HYPE continued to attract net inflows during the period.

Strategy — Michael Saylor's firm — executed a rare sale of 32 BTC to fund STRC dividends, a move that spooked sentiment despite representing just 0.0038% of the company's holdings. On the buy side, Bitmine Immersion Technologies announced its largest ETH accumulation of 2026, signalling that institutional conviction on Ethereum remains intact beneath the short-term weakness. Derivatives data show mildly bullish positioning and steady open interest, suggesting institutional risk appetite is stabilising even as retail exits.

RegulationThe comment period for the GENIUS Act — the US stablecoin law signed in July 2025 — is closing this week with enforcement implementation due in Q3 2026. The companion CLARITY Act, which would hand CFTC jurisdiction over most non-stablecoin digital assets, is expected to pass Congress later this year. Together, the two bills represent the most comprehensive crypto regulatory framework the US has produced. Analysts at 21Shares note that if the regulatory cloud fully lifts, stablecoin market cap — already past $200 billion — could expand dramatically as institutional payment providers gain federal licence to participate.

BreakoutStellar's XLM surged more than 40% after the Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation (DTCC) chose its network for a tokenised securities platform rollout covering Russell 1000 stocks, major index ETFs, and US Treasuries. DTCC plans limited live transactions in July 2026 and a broader launch in October, with Stellar serving as only the second public blockchain connected to the service after Canton Network. Stellar's native base-layer asset model — rather than smart-contract tokens — was cited as particularly relevant for DTCC's compliance requirements.

NEAR Protocol's v2.13 dynamic resharding upgrade, scheduled for June 2026, is designed to let the network automatically add capacity as transaction demand grows — a critical step as NEAR positions itself as infrastructure for an AI-driven on-chain economy. Meanwhile, Solana ETFs are posting their fourth consecutive week of net inflows, quietly bucking the broader fund outflow trend. Hyperliquid (HYPE) also opened June at $72.25, with strong on-chain DEX growth keeping it among the few altcoins attracting fresh capital in a defensive market environment.

Bloomberg confirmed that Anthropic raised $65 billion in a Series H funding round valuing the company at $965 billion post-money — surpassing OpenAI's $852 billion private market valuation for the first time. The company then filed confidentially for an IPO with the SEC on June 1, aiming to go public as early as this autumn. OpenAI is readying its own confidential filing. Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon described markets as being in "greed mode" ahead of what analysts are calling the most significant AI IPO wave in history, with SpaceX also queuing up its listing.

BreakingMicrosoft unveiled a family of seven in-house AI models at Build 2026, the clearest signal yet that it is building independence from OpenAI and Anthropic. The headline release is MAI-Thinking-1, Microsoft's first reasoning model, trained from scratch on clean commercially licensed data without distillation from third-party systems. It matched the performance of Claude Opus 4.6, Microsoft said. The suite also includes MAI-Code-1-Flash for vibe coding, MAI-Voice-1, MAI-Transcribe-1, and MAI-Image-2-Efficient. "The time has come for every company to move from consuming a frontier model to fully participating at the frontier," said CEO Satya Nadella.

BacklashGitHub Copilot's token-based billing went live on June 1, replacing the flat subscription model. The reaction on Reddit, Hacker News, and X was immediate and furious. One developer reported their $29/month plan will balloon to approximately $750/month under the new model, as high-compute reasoning sessions previously subsidised under flat fees now bill at actual compute cost. Microsoft's Project Polaris aims to resolve the underlying economics — the company now controls the model, inference infrastructure (Maia 200), and developer experience end-to-end, reducing its dependence on OpenAI's pricing entirely.

JPMorgan Chase formally reclassified its AI investments from experimental R&D to core infrastructure, with a 2026 technology budget of approximately $19.8 billion and 2,000 dedicated AI staff. In the same week, Microsoft struck a deal with the Mayo Clinic to build frontier healthcare AI, combining Microsoft's MAI reasoning capabilities with Mayo's clinical expertise and proprietary data. The moves are emblematic of a broader enterprise shift: AI is no longer a shiny demo tool but a working layer for business operations, with the winners being companies building repeatable AI workflows rather than chasing benchmark scores.

Cognition — the company behind AI coding agent Devin — raised $1 billion at a $26 billion valuation, positioning it as a direct competitor to Anthropic's Claude Code, which currently leads enterprise AI coding benchmarks with Opus 4.8 scoring 88.6% on SWE-bench Verified. In infrastructure news, SoftBank committed €75 billion to build 5 gigawatts of AI compute capacity in France, continuing its global AI infrastructure buildout. Apollo and Blackstone separately announced a $36 billion TPU deal, signalling that capital markets are placing enormous bets on the physical layer of AI.

AlertSysdig documented the first confirmed live cyberattack using an LLM agent that autonomously exfiltrated an AWS database in under an hour — a sobering benchmark for AI-enabled threats that has rattled enterprise security teams. Separately, a Cross-Session Claude Skill-File Persistence Attack was disclosed by security researchers, demonstrating a novel prompt injection vector. Wikipedia editors also threatened a strike over AI-driven content and staffing changes, reflecting broader societal friction as agentic AI systems expand their operational footprint across institutions.

The S&P 500 climbed 1.4% for the week ending May 29 — its ninth consecutive weekly gain, the longest streak since December 2023 — while the Nasdaq surged 2.4% and the Russell 2000 added 1.8%. All three major indices finished May at fresh record closing highs, defying the traditional "Sell in May and go away" seasonal pattern. Technology led all sectors, up 4.6% for the week, driven by AI infrastructure demand. The S&P 500 has now recovered strongly from its March 30 low, though the gains remain highly concentrated.

Earnings beatDell Technologies posted its fastest revenue growth since returning to public markets, with Q1 revenue of $43.84 billion versus the $35.43 billion expected — an 88% year-over-year surge. AI server revenue alone rose 757% year-over-year to $16.1 billion. Adjusted EPS came in at $4.86, well ahead of the $2.94 consensus. The stock jumped 32% on Friday — its best single day ever — and is now up 234% in 2026. Analyst Ben Reitzes of Melius said he'd "never seen anything like" Dell's AI-driven quarter.

The concentration story in this bull market is extreme. The 19 stocks with market caps above $500 billion are up an average of 38.2% since the March 30 low, while the average S&P 500 stock is up just 8.6%. Three stocks have doubled or more over that period. The 10 stocks with market caps above $1 trillion are collectively up 22.9%. This mega-cap dominance means breadth remains narrow — and a rotation or correction in even a handful of AI-adjacent names could significantly impact index performance despite the headline strength.

Coming soonSpaceX filed its S-1 prospectus with the SEC ahead of an investor roadshow reportedly starting June 5, targeting a June 12 Nasdaq listing under the ticker SPCX. The filing revealed Q1 2026 revenue of $4.69 billion and full-year 2025 revenue of $18.67 billion, with Adjusted EBITDA of $6.58 billion for 2025. The company is aiming to raise up to $75 billion at a $1.75 trillion valuation — which would make it the largest IPO in history. Starlink has more than 9 million subscribers. Elon Musk retains control through dual-class shares.

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang announced that the company's next-generation AI computing platform, Vera Rubin, has entered full-scale mass production — a catalyst that sent NVDA shares sharply higher. Hardware stocks broadly vaulted after memory chipmaker Lenovo reported stronger-than-expected quarterly revenue, lifting sector sentiment. Micron and Qualcomm each added 3–5% over the week, building on recoveries from earlier monthly declines. Nvidia also launched new PC chips at Build 2026, representing its bid to win at every layer of the AI stack.

WatchThe bond market is sounding a note of caution beneath the equity euphoria. The 10-year Treasury yield surged to 4.67% — its highest since January 2025 — and the 30-year briefly touched 5.18%, a level not seen since July 2007. The pace of these moves risks pressuring equities and may limit the Federal Reserve's ability to ease monetary policy. Separately, Q1 2026 GDP was revised down to 1.6% annualised from the initial 2.0% estimate, adding to the sense that growth strength is narrower than the headline indices suggest.

WTI crude declined nearly 10% to $87.36 per barrel at the end of last week as easing Middle East tensions briefly looked credible. Then Iran halted US talks entirely, sending Brent bouncing back above $93. The World Bank's latest Commodity Markets Outlook now projects energy prices to surge 24% in 2026 — the highest level since Russia's invasion of Ukraine — and overall commodity prices to rise 16%, driven by soaring energy and fertiliser prices. Gulf states, acutely aware of their supply vulnerability, are accelerating multi-billion-dollar investments in renewables as a hedge.

Gold was trading at $4,514 per ounce as of Tuesday morning, recovering from a dip to $4,460 the day prior. The metal peaked near $5,000 in January before reversing as rate-cut expectations were pushed back and the dollar firmed. Analysts see the range for June at $4,300–$4,725 absent a major catalyst. Key upcoming catalysts: Friday's Nonfarm Payrolls; June 10–11 CPI and PPI data; and the Federal Reserve's inaugural meeting under new Chair Kevin Warsh scheduled for June 16–17. Any signal of rate hikes would place material downward pressure on gold.

Silver is trading at approximately $74 per ounce, down sharply from its first-ever break above $100 and January peak of $116, but in a market with extraordinary structural support. Demand has grown 17% since 2016, driven by a 143% surge from solar panel manufacturers, while supply has fallen 8.8% over the same period. 2026 marks the fifth consecutive year of structural supply deficit. Major banks forecast a range of $56–$65 for the year in base-case scenarios, with technical models extending to $72–$88 and beyond if the gold/silver ratio compresses further.

Central bank gold purchases have more than doubled versus pre-2020 averages since 2022, with emerging market central banks still significantly underweight gold relative to their developed-world peers. The World Gold Council notes that geopolitical risk and US dollar weakness accounted for roughly 16 percentage points of gold's performance during Trump's second term. Goldman Sachs forecasts a year-end gold target of $5,400 with "significant upside risk," while Deutsche Bank analysts see a path to $6,000 driven by persistent de-dollarisation flows and investment demand.

OutlookDespite strong structural demand, gold and silver face real headwinds into the second half of 2026. April CPI came in hot; markets have fully priced out rate cuts for the year, and some traders are now betting on a hike before year-end. Platinum and palladium also fell below key psychological levels last week on hawkish interest rate signals and surging Treasury yields. Analysts note that gold has been trading increasingly like a risk asset — gaining a strong negative correlation with oil — which is unusual and potentially unstable heading into the second half.

The Iran conflict's impact is rippling well beyond oil. The World Bank's April commodity price index showed fertiliser prices jumping 14% in a single month, with the non-energy index growing 3.2% overall. Food prices are expected to rise approximately 6% in 2026, with knock-on effects for next year's harvests. Industrial metals gained 1.4%, though precious metals declined 2.7% in April's data. Germany's fiscal stimulus remains a bright spot for European industrial demand, but the broader picture for commodities remains one of supply disruption meeting geopolitically driven demand uncertainty.

Jerome Powell's term as Federal Reserve Chair expired in May 2026, and Kevin Warsh has taken the seat. His first FOMC meeting is scheduled for June 16–17, where the committee will need to grapple with sticky CPI and PPI, surging Treasury yields, and the ongoing Iran energy shock. Most analysts expect the Fed to hold rates at 3.50–3.75% in June, with Goldman Sachs forecasting 50 basis points of cuts later in the year, contingent on disinflation. The key question is whether Warsh signals any shift in the committee's reaction function — markets are watching tone, not just dots.

This FridayThe May Nonfarm Payrolls report is the week's single most important data point. Consensus expects around 90,000 jobs added, with the unemployment rate holding at 4.3%. Monthly payroll gains have averaged just 55,000 over the past six months. RBC Economics notes the labour market is "on solid footing" but that new job creation has been "quite limited." A soft print relieves dollar pressure and could open the door to rate cut speculation; a hot number — particularly if accompanied by strong wage growth — accelerates the case for rates staying higher for longer.

April's CPI print came in above expectations, pushing markets to fully price out Fed rate cuts for 2026 — a significant repricing that has reverberated across equities, gold, and crypto. Core PCE ended 2025 at 3.0%, well above the Fed's 2% target, and recent data has not shown the kind of deceleration the committee needs to act. The Iran war has added a persistent energy price component to inflation that the Fed cannot control through rate policy, leaving it in the uncomfortable position of potentially hiking into a slowdown if energy prices remain elevated.

The conflict between the US and Iran, which began in late January 2026, is now in its fourth month with no formal ceasefire in place. The IMF estimates Iran's economy will shrink 6.1% in 2026 with 68.9% inflation, and its currency has collapsed to approximately 1.32 million rial per US dollar. The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz has cut off more than 90% of Iran's international trade. For the US, the Atlanta Fed's growth estimate has been on a downward path since the conflict began, though corporate earnings and consumer spending have remained resilient so far.

CalendarToday (Wednesday) brings a triple-header: US May ADP Employment Change (consensus 120,000, up from April's 109,000), US May ISM Services PMI, and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's testimony before the Senate on budget issues. Thursday delivers Initial Jobless Claims as a Friday preview. The Federal Reserve's Beige Book — its survey of economic conditions across the country — is also due Wednesday, likely to show an expanding economy facing the headwinds of energy-driven inflation. Business investment in Q1 surged over 10%, much of it tied to AI equipment and intellectual property.

Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda is scheduled to speak today, with markets watching for any signals on the pace of yen normalisation after Japan's equity market climbed 1.9% last week. The ECB has communicated its intention to hold rates steady, though consensus forecasts call for two cuts by midyear to 1.5% given slow eurozone growth and below-target inflation. Emerging market outlooks remain mixed: Brazil faces gradual rate normalisation, while CEEMEA central banks benefit from lower commodity import costs and strengthening exchange rates. The divergence between a rate-hiking-leaning US and a rate-cutting rest-of-world is one of the defining macro themes for the second half of 2026.